Playoffs? Don't talk to me about playoffs!

Written by Will on .

NFC Playoff Picture, Week 13

It's December and the Rams are officially being listed as "in the hunt" for the NFL Playoffs. This is a stunning development for a team whose Super Bowl odds, as of two weeks ago, was side-by-side with the wretched Oakland Raiders at 750/1. It's also a sign that the Rams might be becoming a much more dangerous team than we had expected, this quickly into a rebuild. 

It is not a sign - not yet - that the Rams are ready to anoint themselves a playoff-caliber team. "This young team believes we can go in and play with anybody," as Jeff Fisher told Yahoo's Mike Silver. And over the next month of games, they'll get to prove that as they face off against four teams who are just as much "in the hunt" as themselves. The 5-7 Bills, 6-6 Vikings, 6-6 Bucs and 7-5 Seahawks give us a series of opponents with a steadily escalating degree of difficulty. And they'll have to finish on the road. 

When I sat back at the last high point of the Rams' season, after their 3-2 start, I saw a lot of winnable games on their schedule. Then we lost to the Dolphins and the Jets, but balanced that out with huge wins (and a tie) against our division foes.

That run of games shows the truth of most teams that hover around .500 - this isn't a bland, mediocre team that goes out and gives a bland mediocre effort every week. This team of developing young talent and well-fit spare parts is capable of highs that rival those of a ten- or twelve-win team, and equally capable of dismal embarrassments that hearken back to our own awful past. 

It shows that this team is still learning its process, to borrow a term from Nick Saban, but if it needs a blueprint it doesn't have to look much farther than Sunday's gritty win over the Niners. We'd love to see more downfield offense, but what we will see is Bradford being careful and efficient with the football and looking for mismatches. We'd love to see a defense that is shutdown-caliber week in and week out, but what we will see is more of this "soft" play in the secondary designed to keep scores close and take advantage of opportunities for ball-hawking.

We'd love to see our team go on the road and establish itself against premier weapons like CJ Spiller, Marshawn Lynch and Doug "Muscle Hamster" Martin. We'd love to see the Rams defend the Dome in their final home game, and finish with a winning home record for the first time since the soft-scheduled 2010 season.

We'd love - more than anything else - to finish the season with a win in Seattle that knocked those accursed Seahawks out of the playoffs. 

Being a pragmatist (a fancy word for 'pessimist'), I don't expect we'll get everything we'd love to happen. But if this Rams team is going to deserve to be considered a team "in the hunt," these next four weeks are our playoffs. And if they take care of business, at that point, who knows? 

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Week 13 Review – St. Louis Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers

Written by Paul Petruska on .

AP Photo/Seth Perlman

Wow, what a game. It may not have been the prettiest St. Louis Rams win ever, but it certainly was the grittiest. Notwithstanding all of the things that did not go well for the Rams, they still found a way to pull out a victory over the hated San Francisco 49ers. I realize that many Bradford bashers are all over him for failing to score a touchdown, but I plan to write an article this week suggesting it may have been one of his best game in the pros. Before calling me insane, please wait and read the article before you form a conclusion.

I want to note all of the factors that the Rams overcame to win this game.  1) We did not get past the 50 yard line until the last drive in the 2nd quarter which began with 1 minute and 43 seconds left in the half. 2) We averaged 3.1 yards rushing with Bradford averaging 10 yards a carry.  3) The wide receivers dropped five passes, three on third down.  4) We survived one of the worst rushing the passer calls against the Rams ever.  5) A ridiculous false start on a two point conversion.  6) A shank punt in overtime.  7) Our best wide receiver was missing.  8) Our other “starter” Gibbons could not get open enough to even get a single target.  9) Other than Givens, our other receivers could not beat press coverage. Nevertheless, we won the game.

Let’s take a look at the preview to see if any of the factors I highlighted meant anything.

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Finally! Rams kick and claw their way past the 49ers

Written by Will on .

AP Photo / Tom Gannam

It took three weeks and almost 150 minutes of football, but a winner was finally declared in the 10-quarter-long grudge match between the St Louis Rams and San Francisco 49ers. And Jeff Fisher's Rams, bloodied and wearied after this heavyweight battle more than went the distance, have their clenched fists up in the air after a 16-13 decision.

This was no knockout, but after having our team laid out flat on the canvas time and time again in this rivalry - a rivalry in name only until this season - a tie feels almost like a win, and a win feels almost trophy worthy. Rams fans can hold their heads up a little higher now, holders of all the bragging rights in the division right now despite a 5-6-1 record that has us all but eliminated from playoff consideration. 

Hell. Playoffs? Who said anything about playoffs? 

We might be talking about them early and often next season, if the team's current trajectory continues on its current path. Jeff Fisher is putting his stamp on this team, and Rams fans played witness to the first true "Jeff Fisher win." This was a win earned on defense, a commitment to getting tough yardage, out-preparing and then simply wearing down a superior opponent. And to make it sweeter, it was a win witnessed by the old heads of the Rams' past, in town to celebrate the 75th anniversary of the team's founding. 

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Week 13 Preview – St. Louis Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers

Written by Paul Petruska on .

AP Photo/Jeff Chiu

 

I usually try to look for something unique to discuss in the preview. However, the game plan this week is so obvious; I am just going to go with it. In fact, if you look back a few weeks, you might see a very similar preview. Nothing set forth below will guarantee a Rams win, but I believe the numbers support the argument that you have to do this to have a chance to win.   

1.         35+ RUNS

San Francisco has the second best defense in the NFL. They are 4th against the run allowing a measly 91.1 yards a game. They are 2nd against the pass allowing a paltry 187 yards a game. Looking at those stats might cause you to conclude that you can’t have success against the 49ers by focusing on the pass or the run. However, those stats do not tell the full story.

The 49ers have lost two games this year. In the first loss, the Vikings ran the ball 41 times for 137 yards. Adrian Peterson had 25 rushes for 86 yards with a long of 20. If you take away the 20 yard run, AP averaged 2.75 yards a carry. Typically, if you are averaging less than 3 yards a carry, you stop running. The Vikings went with their strength and kept running.

In the 49ers second loss, the Giants ran the ball 37 times for 149 yards. Ahmad Bradshaw, in particular, had 27 rushes for 116 yards with a long of 23. David Wilson ran seven times for 35 yards.

The Rams tied the 49ers in the prior game rushing 36 times. Not surprisingly, Bradford also had one of his best yardage games completing 26 of 39 for 275 yards. The play action was deadly because the run had to be respected. 

As noted in the earlier article, the 49ers have won 3 games by 20 or more points. In those 3 games, the teams ran the ball 9 times (Cardinals), 17 times (Jets) and 19 times (Bills).

There is a chicken and egg story here. Did the teams that beat the 49ers have success in the run because they were winning or did those teams win because they focused on the run? I believe it is the latter. San Francisco is a strong physical defense. You have two choices against them. You either take a beating or try to take the battle to them. Literally this means you attack their strength by encouraging violent collisions. In fact, you initiate violent collisions.

I want the Rams to use Steven Jackson as a battering Ram. Send him up the middle, send him left and send him right. If he can gain positive yards on most of those carries, he will inflict punishment on the D-lineman and linebackers. More importantly, Patrick Willis will be occupied. We can bring in Richardson and Pead from time to time to continue the attack and occasionally try to gain the edge and break one. In the past, this battering Ram strategy has allowed Jackson to have success in the 2nd half.  Patience is the key.

This does not mean that Sam Bradford is minimized in the game. In fact, he becomes even more important because sustained drives will only occur if Bradford can complete 3rd down passes for 1st downs.

2.         SPECIAL TEAMS AND TURNOVERS

Given the rather boring game offensive game plan above, (which is focused more on inflicting punishment than gaining yards), I think the Rams need something special from their special teams to win this game. I also think we need a 2 to 1 advantage in turnovers.  Addendum, I would also advise the Rams to not fumble a kickoff return.

3.         CONTAINMENT OVER PRESSURE

I would love 5 sacks in this game, but honestly containment is far more important. If the Rams keep Kaepernick in the pocket, they will force him to throw. If they force him to throw, they will force him to read. Reads could lead to turnovers. The problem with the Rams pass rush this year is that it has been dependent on the ends or the blitz. Pressure from the ends tends to leave lanes for running quarterbacks to escape. Pressure from blitzes generally rules out having a spy for a running quarterback. In this game, I would far prefer to have a spy than a blitz.

To be clear, I am not suggesting that Kaepernick is only a running quarterback. He has shown an ability to use his arm also. I am simply trying to limit his tools. I am also gravely concerned with the Rams general philosophy on defense against a QB that can run. The linebacker retreat, which we do on almost every long down, leaves a tremendous amount of room for a running quarterback.  Take a look at the last drive in the prior 49er game to see what I am talking about.

4.         Deep Threats

Sam Bradford’s job in this game is going to be take advantage of his few opportunities. When the run fails, he is going to need to complete passes to move the chains, so we can try to run some more. More importantly, once the 49ers are all about stopping the run, Sam has to take some shots deep on play action. Assuming Givens can avoid a suspension, I would suspect we will see multiple deep throws to him.

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Anatomy of a Play: Steven Jackson breaks off a huge cutback run

Written by Tim Shields on .

Christian Petersen / Getty Images

Situation: 1st and 10 from the Rams 8 yard line, trailing by 3 with 11:11 left in the 3rd Quarter. 
Personnel: 12
Play: Duece Left Slot F Jam 26 Stretch 
Defense: Indy Base Cover 1

After a sluggish 1st half showing by the Rams offense, the offense gets the spark it needed on the 1st offensive play in the 2nd half when Steven Jackson's takes the ball for a 46-yard gain.  The Rams would cap the 92-yard touchdown drive with a Bradford-to-Givens 37-yard touchdown pass, giving the Rams a 21-17 lead.  The Rams would never trail again.  

The Rams come out in a Flank Left formation with Lance Kendricks aligned in a wing position behind tight end Mike McNeill to the left and two receivers to the right.  But with Kendricks in a jam motion, the formation of the play call is actually Deuce Left Slot because in a Jam Motion, Kendrick's finishing location is what determines the formation call.  In a Jam Motion, if Kendricks initiates on the edge (which he does he in a wing position behind Mike McNeill) he'll finish on the edge.  

The Cardinals are in their base 3-4 look.  The alignment of the defensive linemen upfront is sometimes referred to as an Indy front by defenses.  They are showing a two-high safety look, but just prior to the snap, Strong Safety Adrian Wilson will roll down into the box and play man over Mike McNeill.  The Cardinals now have 8 in the box to stop the run leaving FS Kerry Rhodes as the lone deep safety.   

Take a look at how Steven Jackson was able to burn the Cardinals for his longest run in nearly two seasons. 

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Sam Bradford and his supporting cast: Some perspective, please!

Written by Paul Petruska on .

For three years now, Rams fans have been told to have patience with Sam Bradford. We have all heard the excuses, new offensive coordinator (each year), no quarterback coach (last year), terrible quarterback coach (first year), wide receivers that can’t get separation (all three years), wide receivers that can’t get deep, and, of course, inconsistent or bad offensive line play. However, I have not seen an article yet get into detail on these excuses so we can determine if they are explanations or excuses. I will attempt to address that now, so you can form your own conclusions.

We all know that a quarterback, whether or running QB or pocket QB, cannot excel without an offensive line which is at least adequate. We can all agree that Sam Bradford had a good to great rookie year. Why? I propose to you that the consistency on the offensive line was the major reason. Certainly, it was not the amazing talent that he had to throw to (addressed later). 

The Offensive Line

2010 OL

In 2010, the same person started at left tackle, center, right guard and left guard all year. The right tackle was Jason Smith, and he only missed one game. No one on that line was an all-star, but Sam Bradford knew their strengths and weaknesses. He knew or should have known when he was going to have protection problems because he knew who was protecting him.

2011 OL

In 2011, the line was in amazing disarray. The only person to start every game was Harvey Dahl, yet Dahl did not start every game at the same position. Rodger Saffold started 9 games. Jason Smith started 6 games.  Jacob Bell started 12 games, and Jason Brown started 14 games. In got interesting thereafter. Adam Goldberg started 8 games at multiple positions. Tony Wragge started 8 games, and Mark LeVoir started three games. The incredibly famous Kevin Hughes and Thomas Welch each played in multiple games. It should surprise no one that Sam Bradford got hurt in 2011 and only played in 10 games.

2012 OL

So far in 2012, Sam Bradford has been inconsistent, but so has his line. Barry Richardson, who was ranked as one of the worst offensive lineman in the league last year by Pro Football Focus, has started all 11 games for the Rams. Harvey Dahl has started 11 games and so has Robert Turner. Otherwise, Rodger Saffold has started 5 games, Chris Wells 2 games, Quinn Ojinnaka 5 games, Shelley Smith 6 games and Wayne Hunter started 4 games.

We now have our regulars back. If my theory is correct, we should see improvement in Bradford’s play over the remaining five games. This is borne out by the chart above, which shows that - aside from Barry RIchardson - the vast majority of QB hits and sacks have come from backups on this year's line. Last week was one of Bradford’s best. While his completion percentage was not up to par, many of his incompletions were throw aways.  His quarterback rating was his second best of the season and fifth best of his career.

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Rodger Saffold: quietly elite in pass protection

Written by Will on .

Photo from StLouisRams.comI'll be honest, I didn't expect to be writing this article. Not after Rodger Saffold's rookie promise evaporated in an all-around-awful 2011 season. Not after Saffold worked his way back to the starting lineup, only to be laid out flat on a stretcher in the first quarter of his first home game back.

Nope, I was, rather petulantly and rather foolishly, willing to write this guy off as yet another Billy Devaney blunder, a would-be foundation block of what turned out to be a gingerbread house. I was (and still am, truth be told) all for a tackle-heavy Rams draft in 2013.

But quietly, in the middle of a five-game winless streak, while I was engaged in my writing-off and my looking-to-next-year, Saffold crept back into the starting lineup. And quietly, oh-so-quietly, he has done something surprising:

He's dominated.

Or at least, that's what the stats are telling us. In an admittedly small sample of four-plus games, Saffold has dropped back to pass-block 138 times, per Pro Football Focus. Only twice has he allowed his man to so much as breathe the wrong way on Sam Bradford - one sack, and one hit.

That's a pass-blocking efficiency rating of 98.7%, ahead of elite uglies Joe Thomas, Ryan Clady and D'Brickashaw Ferguson.

And it's not as though he's been facing dogmeat, either: in three successive games he has not allowed a sack to the 49ers' Aldon Smith (he got his on slightly illegal inside twists around LG Shelley Smith), the Jets' combo of Bryan Thomas and Muhammad Wilkerson, or the Cardinals' Sam Acho.

Now after missing significant chunks of the last two seasons to unlucky injuries, he still has to prove that he's durable enough to handle a full NFL workload at its second-most-important position. But working under the tutelage of Paul Boudreaux and working next to a rotating cast of characters at left guard (four different line partners in five games), Saffold has at least reminded us all that he can actually play a little football.

He might just be pretty damn good, if his body lets him.

Related reading: Brian Wagoner details Saffold's memorable Thanksgiving weekend, which featured the birth of his first child and a Rams win. (StLouisRams.com)

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